We scored every state on five measurable chimney-risk factors — winter heating severity, freeze-thaw cycling, wood-heat share, housing age, and rurality — using NOAA climate normals and U.S. Census data. No invented fire statistics, no fear: just the public numbers, weighted and ranked, with the full methodology and dataset below.
Three patterns stand out in the full table. First, housing age moves the needle as much as climate: Massachusetts (#3), New Jersey (#5), New York (#7), Connecticut (#8), and Rhode Island (#10) all ride median build years from the 1950s and 60s — millions of chimneys designed for coal or oil heat now serving modern appliances. Second, freeze-thaw cycling is its own axis: states whose winter nights hover near the freezing line (Oregon, New Jersey, Maryland) cycle water through masonry dozens of times a season, which is how crowns and mortar actually fail. Third, wood heat concentrates risk in rural corners of otherwise mild states — the share of households heating primarily with wood is the single strongest differentiator among the top ten.
Composite = 30% heating severity + 20% freeze-thaw + 25% wood-heat share + 15% housing age + 10% rurality (each a 0–100 percentile).
| Rank | State | Composite | Heat | Freeze-thaw | Wood | Age | Rural | Winter avg | Wood heat | Median built |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 68.7 | 87.5 | 18.8 | 88.0 | 70.0 | 62.0 | 21.0°F | 0.47% | 1976 |
| 2 | Maine | 66.5 | 91.7 | 8.3 | 78.0 | 68.0 | 76.0 | 19.2°F | 0.29% | 1976 |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 63.5 | 66.7 | 56.2 | 70.0 | 94.0 | 6.0 | 29.1°F | 0.19% | 1963 |
| 4 | Oregon | 63.1 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 60.0 | 48.0 | 78.0 | 33.8°F | 0.18% | 1980 |
| 5 | New Jersey | 62.2 | 37.5 | 97.9 | 72.0 | 88.0 | 2.0 | 34.5°F | 0.2% | 1969 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 61.8 | 33.3 | 75.0 | 92.0 | 32.0 | 90.0 | 37.1°F | 0.63% | 1984 |
| 7 | New York | 60.9 | 75.0 | 43.8 | 54.0 | 98.0 | 14.0 | 24.9°F | 0.12% | 1958 |
| 8 | Connecticut | 60.6 | 58.3 | 66.7 | 62.0 | 90.0 | 8.0 | 30.2°F | 0.18% | 1967 |
| 9 | Nevada | 60.2 | 45.8 | 72.9 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 33.6°F | 0.76% | 1996 |
| 10 | Rhode Island | 59.6 | 52.1 | 83.3 | 50.0 | 96.0 | 4.0 | 32.0°F | 0.12% | 1961 |
| 11 | Colorado | 59.4 | 68.8 | 29.2 | 90.0 | 20.0 | 74.0 | 27.2°F | 0.48% | 1987 |
| 12 | New Hampshire | 59.4 | 81.2 | 22.9 | 68.0 | 62.0 | 42.0 | 22.6°F | 0.19% | 1978 |
| 13 | Maryland | 59.1 | 35.4 | 91.7 | 84.0 | 54.0 | 10.0 | 36.4°F | 0.36% | 1979 |
| 14 | Montana | 59.0 | 85.4 | 20.8 | 52.0 | 44.0 | 96.0 | 22.1°F | 0.12% | 1980 |
| 15 | Utah | 58.5 | 62.5 | 50.0 | 82.0 | 8.0 | 80.0 | 29.6°F | 0.33% | 1991 |
| 16 | Washington | 58.5 | 50.0 | 95.8 | 58.0 | 36.0 | 44.0 | 32.4°F | 0.15% | 1984 |
| 17 | Pennsylvania | 58.0 | 64.6 | 62.5 | 42.0 | 92.0 | 18.0 | 29.5°F | 0.09% | 1965 |
| 18 | Idaho | 57.8 | 72.9 | 47.9 | 64.0 | 10.0 | 88.0 | 25.9°F | 0.18% | 1990 |
| 19 | Iowa | 57.3 | 79.2 | 25.0 | 36.0 | 82.0 | 72.0 | 23.1°F | 0.07% | 1971 |
| 20 | Missouri | 56.0 | 41.7 | 89.6 | 44.0 | 60.0 | 56.0 | 33.9°F | 0.1% | 1978 |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 55.8 | 93.8 | 12.5 | 34.0 | 78.0 | 50.0 | 19.0°F | 0.06% | 1975 |
| 22 | Wyoming | 55.6 | 83.3 | 16.7 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 98.0 | 22.4°F | 0.08% | 1980 |
| 23 | Illinois | 54.9 | 60.4 | 68.8 | 32.0 | 84.0 | 24.0 | 30.0°F | 0.05% | 1970 |
| 24 | West Virginia | 52.7 | 39.6 | 93.8 | 22.0 | 72.0 | 58.0 | 34.0°F | 0.04% | 1976 |
| 25 | Kansas | 52.3 | 47.9 | 60.4 | 26.0 | 74.0 | 82.0 | 33.0°F | 0.05% | 1975 |
| 26 | Minnesota | 52.2 | 95.8 | 6.2 | 30.0 | 58.0 | 60.0 | 14.0°F | 0.05% | 1978 |
| 27 | Ohio | 51.6 | 54.2 | 77.1 | 20.0 | 86.0 | 20.0 | 31.0°F | 0.04% | 1970 |
| 28 | Indiana | 51.1 | 56.2 | 70.8 | 28.0 | 66.0 | 32.0 | 30.8°F | 0.05% | 1976 |
| 29 | Nebraska | 50.7 | 70.8 | 37.5 | 8.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 26.9°F | 0.02% | 1975 |
| 30 | California | 49.8 | 14.6 | 45.8 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 22.0 | 45.4°F | 1.05% | 1976 |
| 31 | Michigan | 49.1 | 77.1 | 39.6 | 10.0 | 80.0 | 36.0 | 23.3°F | 0.03% | 1972 |
| 32 | South Dakota | 48.4 | 89.6 | 14.6 | 4.0 | 56.0 | 92.0 | 21.0°F | 0.02% | 1979 |
| 33 | Arizona | 47.4 | 16.7 | 58.3 | 96.0 | 2.0 | 64.0 | 44.1°F | 0.92% | 1992 |
| 34 | Virginia | 47.1 | 27.1 | 85.4 | 56.0 | 34.0 | 28.0 | 38.2°F | 0.14% | 1984 |
| 35 | North Dakota | 46.4 | 97.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 42.0 | 94.0 | 13.7°F | 0.01% | 1981 |
| 36 | Alaska | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 100.0 | 7.0°F | 0.02% | 1985 |
| 37 | Delaware | 45.6 | 29.2 | 79.2 | 66.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 37.6°F | 0.19% | 1986 |
| 38 | Kentucky | 43.2 | 31.2 | 87.5 | 24.0 | 38.0 | 46.0 | 37.2°F | 0.04% | 1982 |
| 39 | Oklahoma | 42.1 | 25.0 | 81.2 | 18.0 | 46.0 | 70.0 | 40.3°F | 0.03% | 1980 |
| 40 | Arkansas | 38.2 | 20.8 | 52.1 | 48.0 | 18.0 | 68.0 | 42.6°F | 0.11% | 1987 |
| 41 | South Carolina | 35.8 | 12.5 | 41.7 | 76.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 47.5°F | 0.21% | 1991 |
| 42 | Texas | 33.7 | 4.2 | 35.4 | 74.0 | 14.0 | 48.0 | 49.0°F | 0.21% | 1990 |
| 43 | North Carolina | 32.8 | 18.8 | 54.2 | 46.0 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 43.0°F | 0.1% | 1990 |
| 44 | Tennessee | 31.2 | 22.9 | 64.6 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 40.0 | 40.5°F | 0.03% | 1986 |
| 45 | Florida | 25.9 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 86.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 60.3°F | 0.4% | 1988 |
| 46 | Louisiana | 23.4 | 2.1 | 10.4 | 38.0 | 40.0 | 52.0 | 52.0°F | 0.07% | 1982 |
| 47 | Mississippi | 21.9 | 8.3 | 31.2 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 66.0 | 48.0°F | 0.03% | 1986 |
| 48 | Alabama | 19.7 | 10.4 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 54.0 | 47.7°F | 0.01% | 1985 |
| 49 | Georgia | 15.3 | 6.2 | 27.1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 34.0 | 49.0°F | 0.03% | 1991 |
| — | District of Columbia | — | — | — | 80.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | — | 0.3% | 1957 |
| — | Hawaii | — | — | — | 100.0 | 52.0 | 26.0 | — | 4.4% | 1979 |
Unranked rows: No NOAA statewide climate series exists for this jurisdiction, so the two climate subscores cannot be computed. Listed unranked rather than scored on a different basis.
Download the full dataset (CSV, CC BY 4.0) — free to reuse with attribution to ChimneyBeacon.
Climate: NOAA Climate at a Glance statewide time series, winter (Dec–Feb) average and minimum temperature, 1996–2025 means. Heating severity = percentile of winter average temperature (colder = higher). Freeze-thaw = percentile of proximity of the winter mean minimum to 26°F — the band where nightly freezes and daily thaws cycle most often; this is a proxy, not a cycle count. Housing: U.S. Census ACS 2023 5-year — wood as primary heating fuel (B25040), median year built (B25035), population (B01003). Rurality: population density percentile, inverted, from ACS population over Census land area. Limits we want you to know about: statewide averages smooth over real intra-state differences (coastal vs. mountain Oregon are different worlds); the freeze-thaw proxy favors mid-latitude states; and the index measures risk factors, not fire counts — we do not publish fire statistics we cannot verify. DC and Hawaii have no NOAA statewide series and are listed unranked rather than scored on a different basis.
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